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Kelly criterion method
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How Weather Affects Sports Betting
Increase Your Chances of Winning Long Term Betting on Sports
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Betting staking plans
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Sports-betting- a game of numbers
Market movement in betting
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Martingale Considerations in Sports Betting
In-play betting
Accumulator betting
Mobile betting
A Crash Course in Horse Racing
A Crash Course In Sports Betting
American odds versus decimal odds
Bankroll management
Money management in sportsbetting- odds, edge and variance
Basic bet types explained
Paying for Picks
Betting on winning streaks
Betting psychology- a crash course about aspiring professional bettors
Popular Sports Betting Beliefs
Do you make these 9 sportsbetting mistakes?
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Exchange betting
Randomness in sportsbetting
Fractional versus decimal odds
Home team advantage analised
How bad at sportsbetting are you?
Reasons to Keep Betting Records
How bookmakers make money
How bookmakers work
How do betting exchanges work
Should You Bet on Multiple Sports or Specialize?
How do free bets work
How does luck influence short term betting
How good are betting tipsters
Sports Betting for Beginners
How loss aversion impacts performance
How many sports to bet on
How Much Should You Bet On a Sporting Event?
Staking-one method to improve your betting
How much you should risk per bet?
How Sports Betting Has Changed Over the Last 20 Years
How To Avoid A Big Sports Betting Loss
The art of multiple betting
The history of lotteries
The value of information in soccer betting
Three careers ideally suited to betting
Tips for Better Sports Betting Results
Types of Online Sports Betting Bonuses
Understanding and managing your risk of ruin
Understanding Horse Racing Bet Types
Understanding Live Betting
Value betting is an essential skill for bettors
Ways to Increase the Percentage of Sports Bets You Win
What are drawdowns and how to manage them
What are the most common mistakes the bettors make
What are the real chances of winning the lottery?
What distinguishes winning from losing betors
What is a handicap soccer betting?
What is the Fibonacci betting system?
What is the Labouchere betting system
What is the Martingale staking system
Why do we gamble? Irrationality and overconfidence
Why patience is an essential trait for any serious bettor
Poisson Distribution: Predict the score in soccer betting
Fixed Staking vs. Variable Staking
Basketball betting: Bet types explained
7 Sure-Fire Baseball Betting Strategies
How Does In-Play Betting Work?
To Parlay, or Not to Parlay?
Wisdom of the Crowds applied to betting
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How to Gamble with Dice – Popular Dice Games and Their Variations
How Online Casinos Helped Me Love Roulette Even More
My Top Three Tips for Getting Comps in Casinos
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5 Gambling Tricks You Can Only Use Online
5 LITTLE-KNOWN FACTS THAT AFFECT YOUR AVERAGE HOURLY LOSS IN A CASINO
5 REASONS CASINO GAMES ARE SO ENTERTAINING
5 Things All Casino Gambling Fans Are Sick of Hearing
5 Tips to Managing Your Casino Bankroll Effectively
The Five Most Important Tips I Ever Learned on Bankroll Management
5 Rookie Mistakes in Blackjack and How to Avoid Them
7 roulette variations probably you have never heard of
7 THINGS YOU NEVER KNEW ABOUT CASINOS
7 Ways Casino Players Sabotage Their Chances of Success
How to Tell If You’re About to Make a Mistake with Your Next Casino Bet
The 12 Types of People I Meet in Casinos – Analyzing My Fellow Gamblers
10 SURE-FIRE CASINO GAMBLING STRATEGIES THAT WORK
What I Love Most About My Three Favorite Video Poker Games
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Baccarat and the Martingale System – Can It Work?
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What’s Next for Online Gambling?
Using Self-Discipline in the Casino
20 ONLINE GAMBLING TIPS
Going All-In – When to Bet It All in Poker
10 Things I Wish I’d Known About Roulette Before I Started
Who’s the Best Video Poker Player in the World
Are No-Deposit Bonuses at Online Casinos a Waste of Your Time or Worth Going For?
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BEATING BACCARAT – WINNING SYSTEMS & STRATEGIES
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Finding the Best Slots Online
Gambling and Poker Playing: 10 Things to Know
GAMBLING GAMES THAT ARE REALLY WORTH TRYING
HOW TO AVOID GOING BROKE AT THE ROULETTE WHEEL
HOW TO GET YOUR FIRST ONLINE CASINO SIGNUP BONUS
How to make a million playing video poker
How to Spend Your Gambling Winnings
HOW TO SURVIVE A BLIZZARD AT THE CRAPS TABLE
HOW TO WIN AT ROULETTE
How to Win Consistently at Casino Gambling
How to Win Consistently at Craps
How to Win Consistently at Roulette
HOW VOLATILITY WORKS IN CASINO GAMBLING
Is It Possible to Play Roulette as a Career (Or Even as a Part Time Gig)?
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MONEY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY FOR YOUR NEXT CASINO TRIP
ONLINE CASINO DISPUTES
SKILL BASED CASINO GAMES: PROS AND CONS
The 5 secret joys of casino gambling
The Benefits of an Online Gambling Environment
The Best Long-Term Strategies for Playing Progressive Jackpot Slots
THE BIGGEST JACKPOTS IN ONLINE GAMBLING
THE EASIEST WAY TO LEARN BLACKJACK STRATEGY
THE HOUSE EDGE
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The Surprising Secret to Winning at Casino Gambling
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INTERVIEW WITH JOE PETA- STOCK TRADER TURNED BETTING EXPERT

We recently reviewed ‘Trading Bases’ - the story of a Wall Street trader who turned to baseball betting after he was run over by an ambulance and fired by the investment bank that employed him while he was injured. In this follow-up interview, we learn more about Joe Peta, the man who developed a successful baseball-betting model and wrote a book about how he did it. Find out what Joe thinks the future has in store for betting and his advice for gaining an edge over bookmakers.

You’re at a dinner party where no one has read or heard of Trading Bases. How do you introduce yourself and what you have achieved?

If we were playing a game of “You wouldn’t know it looking at him/her but…” I guess I’d say, I wrote a book that Charlie Rose, Billy Beane and Maria Bartiromo all loved and interviewed me about.

Why did you decide to give away your edge? Were you tempted to continue betting and keep the model to yourself? 

I never worried about that for a number of reasons. Firstly, models always evolve and in my case, while the framework is the same now as five years ago, there are elements of it from then that make me cringe now. Secondly, in no way did I ever feel like I would have an effect on the overall pricing of the baseball market.

"I calculated an expected edge of 12-14% return to investors over a full season in 2012."

Finally, the whole point of the book was to celebrate the critical reasoning overlap between asset management in the financial industry, the sabermetric side of baseball and sports betting. 

As far as continuing to bet, I calculated an expected edge of maybe a 12-14% return to investors over a full season in 2012. The $1 million investment could have been doubled before I would have run into limits in Vegas. So let’s call it an expected return of 12% on $2 million of $240,000. 

Using a traditional hedge fund split of 20% profits for the manager, it would come to $48,000. That just doesn’t compete with a professional wage in other industries.

How much time did you put into developing your strategy and the first year of betting? How did you find the motivation to do it?

I have no coding skills, so probably more time than a millennial would need! Truthfully, it was a non-stop endeavour for two years. The motivation was the fact that I was injured, couldn’t work and needed something to occupy my time while I recovered.

If you were implementing your betting model now, what would be your main criteria for selecting a bookmaker?

Without a doubt it would be tight spreads. I spent a lot of time in the book detailing why baseball betting is an attractive market for a model-based bettor and the biggest, of course, is the Dime Line. Any bookmaker that adheres to that, and even narrows it a bit, is the first place I’d turn.

That said, and you’ll notice I pointedly didn’t mention limits, my professional background was that of a market-maker stocks trading and I based my entire franchise around customer service. Capital is obviously a role of a book or market-maker, but the most valuable role one can provide is pairing two different deep-pocketed bettors/investors.

Where do you see the future of sports betting heading? Do you think more bettors will use a strategy/model?

I see more entity betting on the horizon and for it to thrive, I believe the bookmaking side of the business will be most successful if it offers new products and, most importantly, slowly shifts from a principal business to an agency business.

Ultimately, the size of the business can grow a lot more if they adopt a hybrid model that involves collecting rents as opposed to solely risking capital.

Being able to overcome personal difficulty was apparent in your book. Did you have to overcome any difficulty with your betting model and its results?

Having traded stocks professionally for well over a decade, I am quite comfortable with risk and the ups and downs of risking capital so I don’t recall ever getting discouraged.

Sabermetrics was obviously a key foundation to your model. Do you think your model (or stats like SIERA) have/will be refined? Is there more out there for bettors to exploit or have bookmakers got everything covered?

I think measuring and predicting defensive value is the biggest market inefficiency that currently exists. The beautiful thing about baseball is there are so many different inputs that everyone can calculate and weigh differently.

In a market like baseball, with small margins courtesy of the Dime Line, there are many, many different “answers” that different model-based bettors can arrive at, which makes for a market that adjusts constantly.

Is there any advancement in technology since Trading Bases was published that you think might help or hinder bettors (e.g. Data analysis/social media)?

With 100% certainty, the explosion in daily fantasy betting that occurred since my book was written in 2012 created a large subset of coders and data analysts that are far more sophisticated than what I’m capable of.

Experience with trading stocks seemed integral to the success of your model. What other kind of skills/experience helped you succeed?

Managing a portfolio from a capital allocation standpoint. That may seem the same as trading stocks, but it’s actually very different. One of the things I touch on in the book is how strongly I feel that bettors misuse the Kelly Criterion.

"I think measuring and predicting defensive value in baseball is the biggest market inefficiency that currently exists."

If you’ve managed a hedge fund or a mutual fund, you have a real strong feel for risk, variance and, importantly, that of the “replacement-level” asset - the S&P 500.

Running an alternative fund like baseball is an exercise in trying to find a higher expected return with the same amount of risk. That’s when you know you’ve got a viable investment vehicle, and I can assure you from looking at the books at a lot of other bettors, they have way, way too much variance.

What would your advice be to someone who wants to develop his or her own model? What is a good starting point for aspiring bettors and what do they need to be successful?

They would need to be very logical and at the same time very creative. The great thing is, if they are curious, everything they need to build a model is in the public domain.

Are you domain specific when it comes to betting, because of the specific dynamics of baseball scoring or have you applied systems to other sports? 

I actually have fiddled around with model-based betting in other sports, mostly college football, but the models aren’t mine, just the capital allocation structure. The thing about baseball though is the limited house-edge and that just doesn’t exist in other sports. Yet.

Is your experience fairly rare – moving from Wall Street to sports betting – or is betting on sports moving towards being seen as an asset class in its own right?

There are a lot of structural changes that need to occur in both the offshore and the bricks-and-mortar business of sports betting, for a true alternative asset class to emerge, but it will happen.

All the pieces are in place. It’s just going to take some more innovation, some of which I’ve touched on above.

Read our review of Trading Bases and learn more about Joe's story.