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Lazy Sports Betting Tactics
How to beat the bookies in the over-under markets
How to convert between decimal and American odds
How to get an edge in betting
How to test the credibility of a tipster`s record
Kelly criterion method
How to use Kelly Criterion for betting
How Weather Affects Sports Betting
Increase Your Chances of Winning Long Term Betting on Sports
Intermediate and Advanced Sports Betting
Common sportsbetting myths
Advices on Betting Fundamentals
Betting do's and don'ts
Choosing a staking method based on your betting profile
Betting staking plans
Value betting explained
Sports-betting- a game of numbers
Market movement in betting
Types of odds explained
European types of bets explained
American types of bets explained
Martingale Considerations in Sports Betting
In-play betting
Accumulator betting
Mobile betting
A Crash Course in Horse Racing
A Crash Course In Sports Betting
American odds versus decimal odds
Bankroll management
Money management in sportsbetting- odds, edge and variance
Basic bet types explained
Paying for Picks
Betting on winning streaks
Betting psychology- a crash course about aspiring professional bettors
Popular Sports Betting Beliefs
Do you make these 9 sportsbetting mistakes?
Does intuition have a place in sportsbetting?
Exchange betting
Randomness in sportsbetting
Fractional versus decimal odds
Home team advantage analised
How bad at sportsbetting are you?
Reasons to Keep Betting Records
How bookmakers make money
How bookmakers work
How do betting exchanges work
Should You Bet on Multiple Sports or Specialize?
How do free bets work
How does luck influence short term betting
How good are betting tipsters
Sports Betting for Beginners
How loss aversion impacts performance
How many sports to bet on
How Much Should You Bet On a Sporting Event?
Staking-one method to improve your betting
How much you should risk per bet?
How Sports Betting Has Changed Over the Last 20 Years
How To Avoid A Big Sports Betting Loss
The art of multiple betting
The history of lotteries
The value of information in soccer betting
Three careers ideally suited to betting
Tips for Better Sports Betting Results
Types of Online Sports Betting Bonuses
Understanding and managing your risk of ruin
Understanding Horse Racing Bet Types
Understanding Live Betting
Value betting is an essential skill for bettors
Ways to Increase the Percentage of Sports Bets You Win
What are drawdowns and how to manage them
What are the most common mistakes the bettors make
What are the real chances of winning the lottery?
What distinguishes winning from losing betors
What is a handicap soccer betting?
What is the Fibonacci betting system?
What is the Labouchere betting system
What is the Martingale staking system
Why do we gamble? Irrationality and overconfidence
Why patience is an essential trait for any serious bettor
Poisson Distribution: Predict the score in soccer betting
Fixed Staking vs. Variable Staking
Basketball betting: Bet types explained
7 Sure-Fire Baseball Betting Strategies
How Does In-Play Betting Work?
To Parlay, or Not to Parlay?
Wisdom of the Crowds applied to betting
CASINO ARTICLES
A Novice’s Tutorial on Casino Gambling Games
How to Gamble with Dice – Popular Dice Games and Their Variations
How Online Casinos Helped Me Love Roulette Even More
My Top Three Tips for Getting Comps in Casinos
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5 Gambling Tricks You Can Only Use Online
5 LITTLE-KNOWN FACTS THAT AFFECT YOUR AVERAGE HOURLY LOSS IN A CASINO
5 REASONS CASINO GAMES ARE SO ENTERTAINING
5 Things All Casino Gambling Fans Are Sick of Hearing
5 Tips to Managing Your Casino Bankroll Effectively
The Five Most Important Tips I Ever Learned on Bankroll Management
5 Rookie Mistakes in Blackjack and How to Avoid Them
7 roulette variations probably you have never heard of
7 THINGS YOU NEVER KNEW ABOUT CASINOS
7 Ways Casino Players Sabotage Their Chances of Success
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The 12 Types of People I Meet in Casinos – Analyzing My Fellow Gamblers
10 SURE-FIRE CASINO GAMBLING STRATEGIES THAT WORK
What I Love Most About My Three Favorite Video Poker Games
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Using Self-Discipline in the Casino
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Going All-In – When to Bet It All in Poker
10 Things I Wish I’d Known About Roulette Before I Started
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Are No-Deposit Bonuses at Online Casinos a Waste of Your Time or Worth Going For?
Are Online Casino Bonuses Worth Taking?
BEATING BACCARAT – WINNING SYSTEMS & STRATEGIES
CHOOSING THE RIGHT SLOT MACHINE
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Finding the Best Slots Online
Gambling and Poker Playing: 10 Things to Know
GAMBLING GAMES THAT ARE REALLY WORTH TRYING
HOW TO AVOID GOING BROKE AT THE ROULETTE WHEEL
HOW TO GET YOUR FIRST ONLINE CASINO SIGNUP BONUS
How to make a million playing video poker
How to Spend Your Gambling Winnings
HOW TO SURVIVE A BLIZZARD AT THE CRAPS TABLE
HOW TO WIN AT ROULETTE
How to Win Consistently at Casino Gambling
How to Win Consistently at Craps
How to Win Consistently at Roulette
HOW VOLATILITY WORKS IN CASINO GAMBLING
Is It Possible to Play Roulette as a Career (Or Even as a Part Time Gig)?
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MONEY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY FOR YOUR NEXT CASINO TRIP
ONLINE CASINO DISPUTES
SKILL BASED CASINO GAMES: PROS AND CONS
The 5 secret joys of casino gambling
The Benefits of an Online Gambling Environment
The Best Long-Term Strategies for Playing Progressive Jackpot Slots
THE BIGGEST JACKPOTS IN ONLINE GAMBLING
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Staking-one method to improve your betting

There is a strong case to suggest that the amount you bet is actually more important than what you bet on. We reviewed five popular staking methods. Continue reading to discover which is best.

Professional blackjack player and author Ed Thorp was a successful card-counter. Too successful, many would argue, as his ability at the tables of Las Vegas’ biggest casinos lead to the implementation of multiple decks and the start of a war on card-counting.

 

Staking method

Method of calculating the appropriate amount of money to place on a bet for consistent profit making as part of a betting strategy.

 

Despite his expertise as a professional gambler – he published two books on the subject – he attributed the majority of his success to a staking formula created by mathematician John Kelly Jr. “Playing strategy is maybe a third to a quarter … of what you’re going to get out of it. Betting strategy may be two thirds or three quarters”.

Of course, it’s easy to say that a betting strategy is important. But what makes a useful strategy in sports betting? With influence from Alex Bellos’ Alex’s Adventures in Numberland, we mapped the success of five betting strategies over a series of 500 bets:

 

The above graph shows the profits from 500 simulated bets for five betting systems, with the probability of winning at 55% on a Binary bet. The initial bet for each method was $100 (except for the all-in method, which initially bet $1000). Each system started with a $1000 bank, and the simulation continued for each method until the 500th bet (or until their bank was minimised).

As you can see, one betting system provides far greater returns than the others, while one drops you out pretty quickly.

The five systems are outlined below – which letter do you think each line corresponds to?

Strategy 1: Bet everything, every time

Bet your entire bankroll on each bet. The advantage is that you get big returns, fast. The downside? As soon as you lose, you’re out of money and out of the game.

Strategy 2: Fixed wager

Bet a fixed amount for each bet, and don’t vary no matter how much you win. In this example, it was $100. If your chance of winning 55% on a 2.000 bet, this method means you’ve dramatically reduced your chance of losing your entire stake. Unfortunately, it means your winnings are limited to increase in a “slow and steady” fashion.

Strategy 3: Martingale

Bet double your stake after any failed bet, to cover your losses with the next bet’s winnings. This gives a quicker increase than fixed wagers (as you’re doubling up to cover any losses). If you experience sequential losses, however, the required stakes continue to double, and you’ll very soon be betting large amounts to cover your losses.

Strategy 4: Fibonacci

Increase your stake in a Fibonacci sequence, to your losses with the next bet’s winnings. This method has similar drawbacks to Martingale method in sports betting, but it reduces how quickly the stake increases if you’re on a losing streak (and therefore also reduces the rate at which you win).

Strategy 5: Proportional betting

Bet a fraction of your bankroll in proportion to your edge. In this simulation, we used the Kelly Criterion formula for proportional sports betting. With this method, your bet should be your edge divided by the odds. In this example, as the edge is 10% and the odds are evens, 10 / 1 is 10.

Therefore 10% of the $1000 wallet should be bet: $100. Should that bet be successful, the next bet would increase to $110, 10% of the new $1100 wallet. This means winnings increase quicker than in the fixed-wager system, and losses slow down.

Which strategy is best?

The correct answer is:

A. Bet everything

B. Martingale

C. Fixed wager

D. Proportional Betting

E. Fibonacci

As you can tell from the descriptions above, proportional betting appears to have a natural advantage over the others systems. Imagine you’re down to your last $100 – you’d be betting $10, (and decreasing), keeping you in the game for much longer than a fixed-bet system, where your last $100 would be your last bet.

Bet everything brings in big gains after the first bet, earning as much in one risk than the others do in the first seven. The light that burns seven-times as bright burns a thousandth as long, however, the “bet everything” sports betting strategy is eliminated on just the second round.

The chance of making it through 1,000 rounds at 55% is infinitesimally small as to be practically impossible (although you would have earned $67 billion by round 27).

The simulation shows that different staking techniques have vastly different outcomes, even if the variables stay the same.

Fibonacci and Martingale – progressive sports betting systems – also start strongly, but any big sequence of losses ramp up the required stake.

In our simulation, at round 83 (R83), we lost 11 times in a row. These defeats totally wiped out both Fibonacci and Martingale’s stakes, and at the end of this 11-in-a-row streak the hypothetical Martingale bettor had to bet $403,000 dollars to recuperate his losses. That’s a huge amount, considering his maximum purse was just $6,300. For Fibonacci, the maximum bet was $33,500, with his purse reaching its zenith at $4,100 before the wipeout.

The only system other than proportional betting to avoid losses was fixed betting, which accrued slow but steady increments. By R83, fixed betting had increased its purse to $3,400, and afterwards it had only dropped to $2,300. It wasn’t out, but there was not a lot to show for 95 bets.

The 11-bet losing streak also hit proportional betting pretty hard, reducing its winnings from $7,359 to $2,286 – lower than that of fixed betting. This shows how well fixed betting protects your winnings. However, by bet 500, fixed betting had only brought in $6,400, while proportional betting had earned $18,275.

Bettors should note that this is based on a huge assumption that the edge is in your favour, without it the results for all staking strategies would change dramatically.

Backing your staking technique

The above simulation shows that different staking techniques have vastly different outcomes, even if the other variables stay the same. The difference between being wiped out and finishing with $18,275 after 500 bets was simply choosing a suitable staking system.

It’s important however, to remember that there is no “ideal” system. Although the Kelly Criterion system worked in the example above, there may be more developed systems for different types of bets. It’s important to discover which staking style is suitable to your sports betting, typically through research and simulation.

It’s also important to remember that the Kelly Criterion system only works if you know your edge, which you use to calculate your stake. If your calculation of your edge is incorrect, you’re still going to have difficulties whatever you do. Read through the rest of our Betting Resources archiveto help sharpen your understanding of betting formulas and strategies.