The largest directory of betting bonuses

The biggest collection of free betting e-books


Betting Articles

The advantages of betting with Intertops
Lazy Sports Betting Tactics
How to beat the bookies in the over-under markets
How to convert between decimal and American odds
How to get an edge in betting
How to test the credibility of a tipster`s record
Kelly criterion method
How to use Kelly Criterion for betting
How Weather Affects Sports Betting
Increase Your Chances of Winning Long Term Betting on Sports
Intermediate and Advanced Sports Betting
Common sportsbetting myths
Advices on Betting Fundamentals
Betting do's and don'ts
Choosing a staking method based on your betting profile
Betting staking plans
Value betting explained
Sports-betting- a game of numbers
Market movement in betting
Types of odds explained
European types of bets explained
American types of bets explained
Martingale Considerations in Sports Betting
In-play betting
Accumulator betting
Mobile betting
A Crash Course in Horse Racing
A Crash Course In Sports Betting
American odds versus decimal odds
Bankroll management
Money management in sportsbetting- odds, edge and variance
Basic bet types explained
Paying for Picks
Betting on winning streaks
Betting psychology- a crash course about aspiring professional bettors
Popular Sports Betting Beliefs
Do you make these 9 sportsbetting mistakes?
Does intuition have a place in sportsbetting?
Exchange betting
Randomness in sportsbetting
Fractional versus decimal odds
Home team advantage analised
How bad at sportsbetting are you?
Reasons to Keep Betting Records
How bookmakers make money
How bookmakers work
How do betting exchanges work
Should You Bet on Multiple Sports or Specialize?
How do free bets work
How does luck influence short term betting
How good are betting tipsters
Sports Betting for Beginners
How loss aversion impacts performance
How many sports to bet on
How Much Should You Bet On a Sporting Event?
Staking-one method to improve your betting
How much you should risk per bet?
How Sports Betting Has Changed Over the Last 20 Years
How To Avoid A Big Sports Betting Loss
The art of multiple betting
The history of lotteries
The value of information in soccer betting
Three careers ideally suited to betting
Tips for Better Sports Betting Results
Types of Online Sports Betting Bonuses
Understanding and managing your risk of ruin
Understanding Horse Racing Bet Types
Understanding Live Betting
Value betting is an essential skill for bettors
Ways to Increase the Percentage of Sports Bets You Win
What are drawdowns and how to manage them
What are the most common mistakes the bettors make
What are the real chances of winning the lottery?
What distinguishes winning from losing betors
What is a handicap soccer betting?
What is the Fibonacci betting system?
What is the Labouchere betting system
What is the Martingale staking system
Why do we gamble? Irrationality and overconfidence
Why patience is an essential trait for any serious bettor
Poisson Distribution: Predict the score in soccer betting
Fixed Staking vs. Variable Staking
Basketball betting: Bet types explained
7 Sure-Fire Baseball Betting Strategies
How Does In-Play Betting Work?
To Parlay, or Not to Parlay?
Wisdom of the Crowds applied to betting
CASINO ARTICLES
A Novice’s Tutorial on Casino Gambling Games
How to Gamble with Dice – Popular Dice Games and Their Variations
How Online Casinos Helped Me Love Roulette Even More
My Top Three Tips for Getting Comps in Casinos
5 blackjack stereotypes
5 Gambling Tricks You Can Only Use Online
5 LITTLE-KNOWN FACTS THAT AFFECT YOUR AVERAGE HOURLY LOSS IN A CASINO
5 REASONS CASINO GAMES ARE SO ENTERTAINING
5 Things All Casino Gambling Fans Are Sick of Hearing
5 Tips to Managing Your Casino Bankroll Effectively
The Five Most Important Tips I Ever Learned on Bankroll Management
5 Rookie Mistakes in Blackjack and How to Avoid Them
7 roulette variations probably you have never heard of
7 THINGS YOU NEVER KNEW ABOUT CASINOS
7 Ways Casino Players Sabotage Their Chances of Success
How to Tell If You’re About to Make a Mistake with Your Next Casino Bet
The 12 Types of People I Meet in Casinos – Analyzing My Fellow Gamblers
10 SURE-FIRE CASINO GAMBLING STRATEGIES THAT WORK
What I Love Most About My Three Favorite Video Poker Games
The Last Guide to Video Poker Tournament Strategies You’ll Ever Need
Baccarat and the Martingale System – Can It Work?
Is There a Gambling System That Never Loses?
Combining the Martingale System with Odds Bets in Craps
Which Bets on Which Casino Games Offer the Best Odds of Doubling Your Money?
What’s Next for Online Gambling?
Using Self-Discipline in the Casino
20 ONLINE GAMBLING TIPS
Going All-In – When to Bet It All in Poker
10 Things I Wish I’d Known About Roulette Before I Started
Who’s the Best Video Poker Player in the World
Are No-Deposit Bonuses at Online Casinos a Waste of Your Time or Worth Going For?
Are Online Casino Bonuses Worth Taking?
BEATING BACCARAT – WINNING SYSTEMS & STRATEGIES
CHOOSING THE RIGHT SLOT MACHINE
EUROPEAN VS. AMERICAN ROULETTE
EVEN MONEY CASINO BETS
Feel Confident When Gambling Online – 8 Tips to Help You Choose a Secure Site
Finding the Best Slots Online
Gambling and Poker Playing: 10 Things to Know
GAMBLING GAMES THAT ARE REALLY WORTH TRYING
HOW TO AVOID GOING BROKE AT THE ROULETTE WHEEL
HOW TO GET YOUR FIRST ONLINE CASINO SIGNUP BONUS
How to make a million playing video poker
How to Spend Your Gambling Winnings
HOW TO SURVIVE A BLIZZARD AT THE CRAPS TABLE
HOW TO WIN AT ROULETTE
How to Win Consistently at Casino Gambling
How to Win Consistently at Craps
How to Win Consistently at Roulette
HOW VOLATILITY WORKS IN CASINO GAMBLING
Is It Possible to Play Roulette as a Career (Or Even as a Part Time Gig)?
Is One Blackjack Game Better Than Another?
MONEY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY FOR YOUR NEXT CASINO TRIP
ONLINE CASINO DISPUTES
SKILL BASED CASINO GAMES: PROS AND CONS
The 5 secret joys of casino gambling
The Benefits of an Online Gambling Environment
The Best Long-Term Strategies for Playing Progressive Jackpot Slots
THE BIGGEST JACKPOTS IN ONLINE GAMBLING
THE EASIEST WAY TO LEARN BLACKJACK STRATEGY
THE HOUSE EDGE
The only roulette strategy you will ever need
The Surprising Secret to Winning at Casino Gambling
Who Takes Care of Your Safety at Online Casinos?
Why Don’t Craps Players Just Use the Right Strategy?
Why I love American roulette
WHY IS THE DON’T PASS BET BETTER THAN THE PASS BET IN CRAPS?
WHY IS THE DON’T PASS BET BETTER THAN THE PASS BET IN CRAPS?
Newsletter Subscribe for our latest offers.
Name:
E-mail:

How does luck influence short term betting

As a bettor do you understand how luck influences your short-term betting? Is a run of five winning bets skill or luck? This article explains how assigning probabilities to your bets is a good habit to develop, as a run of winning bets isn't always a sign of good betting.

The relationship between bookmaker and bettor is based around the odds priced up by the former, and the opinion of the latter regarding the accuracy of that calculation.

The most readily used example is a fair coin toss. The expectation that either a head or tail will result from a single toss is equal, with an implied probability of 0.5, and if this expectation were to be converted to decimal odds, the fair price for a head or tail would be 2.0.

Of course, a bookmaker intent on making profit would price this market up at shorter odds than 2.0 to ensure that any bet made would, in the long term, be favourable to the book. A price of 1.87 on both would have an implied probability of 0.535 for each of the two possible outcomes.

The margin - learn how to calculate betting margins here - for such a simple market is derived from the sum of the implied probabilities. In the case of the example above, this would be 1.07 and the margin would typically be quoted as 7%.

The larger the margin, the easier task the bookmaker has to ensure their prices are not longer than the true chance of an event happening, which would present a long term value opportunity for the bettor.

How likely is a run of profitable bets?

If betting with a low margin book is the first step to a profitable approach, the most visible sign that a series of bets have passed the value test, is a profitable yield.

However, bettors should look at how likely it is that a run of bets will produce a profit or loss based on the implied true probabilities.

If we again use the artificial example of a series of coin tosses, where we are certain of the true probability, we can calculate the likelihood that a particular run of bets will be profitable or not.

The outcome of ten such true even money bets can range from ten consecutive losing bets all the way through to a full house of winners.

It is more likely that the outcome of ten such trials will include a mix of successful and unsuccessful wagers and the most likely outcome is an even split of wins and losses. In simulations or by the use of a binomial calculator, this particular outcome has a probability of occurring nearly 0.25.

The outcome of each trial is independent of the previous outcome and the bookmaker will use the margin to offer an unfavourable price for each toss.

If, for example the price for each outcome was set at 1.87 - a margin of 7% - five successes from 10 bets would produce a return of 9.35 units if 1 unit level stakes were wagered on each of the ten bets.

Overall, a yield of 0.65 units lost from the ten units staked.

How the margin affects your returns

We can use this simple example to illustrate the importance of understanding the effect the bookmaker’s margin has on returns. If each event had been priced at 1.95, the margin would have only been 2.5% compared to the previous 7% and although a loss would still have been made from only picking five winners from ten bets, this loss would have fallen from 0.65 units to 0.25.

To make a profit from such a series of poor value wagers, six or more successes are required. And again either by simulations or with the online calculator there is just under a 0.21 probability that exactly six wins fall in ten trials, and a yield of 1.22 units are made at 1.87 or 1.7 units at the more generous price of 1.95.

Of course, seven wins and greater will also produce a positive return from these ten bets and the cumulative probability for each number of wins of six or greater totals nearly 0.38.

Therefore, because of how we have set up this artificial scenario, we know that each individual wager is priced to represent poor value for the bettor. Yet there is not an insignificant chance that six or more wins will occur in ten bets and a profit will be made.

Keep records to identify the difference between luck & skill

Real life betting sequences will involve a variety of prices and stakes, but the key to a successful approach will include identifying prices, which may not fully reflect your estimation of the actual chances of an outcome occurring.

Therefore, keeping a record of your estimation of the true probability of your bet being successful, alongside the implied probability from the bookmaker’s odds, is a good habit to develop.

Not only can you compare the two values, but it also allows for relatively simple spreadsheet based simulations, along the lines of the coin toss scenario, to be created to examine the part in which luck and skill may have played in the short term to your current yield.

A knowledgeable bettor will often think in probabilistic terms, not only for individual outcomes, but also in the profit or loss scenario from a sequence of such bets.