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The advantages of betting with Intertops
Lazy Sports Betting Tactics
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How to convert between decimal and American odds
How to get an edge in betting
How to test the credibility of a tipster`s record
Kelly criterion method
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How Weather Affects Sports Betting
Increase Your Chances of Winning Long Term Betting on Sports
Intermediate and Advanced Sports Betting
Common sportsbetting myths
Advices on Betting Fundamentals
Betting do's and don'ts
Choosing a staking method based on your betting profile
Betting staking plans
Value betting explained
Sports-betting- a game of numbers
Market movement in betting
Types of odds explained
European types of bets explained
American types of bets explained
Martingale Considerations in Sports Betting
In-play betting
Accumulator betting
Mobile betting
A Crash Course in Horse Racing
A Crash Course In Sports Betting
American odds versus decimal odds
Bankroll management
Money management in sportsbetting- odds, edge and variance
Basic bet types explained
Paying for Picks
Betting on winning streaks
Betting psychology- a crash course about aspiring professional bettors
Popular Sports Betting Beliefs
Do you make these 9 sportsbetting mistakes?
Does intuition have a place in sportsbetting?
Exchange betting
Randomness in sportsbetting
Fractional versus decimal odds
Home team advantage analised
How bad at sportsbetting are you?
Reasons to Keep Betting Records
How bookmakers make money
How bookmakers work
How do betting exchanges work
Should You Bet on Multiple Sports or Specialize?
How do free bets work
How does luck influence short term betting
How good are betting tipsters
Sports Betting for Beginners
How loss aversion impacts performance
How many sports to bet on
How Much Should You Bet On a Sporting Event?
Staking-one method to improve your betting
How much you should risk per bet?
How Sports Betting Has Changed Over the Last 20 Years
How To Avoid A Big Sports Betting Loss
The art of multiple betting
The history of lotteries
The value of information in soccer betting
Three careers ideally suited to betting
Tips for Better Sports Betting Results
Types of Online Sports Betting Bonuses
Understanding and managing your risk of ruin
Understanding Horse Racing Bet Types
Understanding Live Betting
Value betting is an essential skill for bettors
Ways to Increase the Percentage of Sports Bets You Win
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Fixed Staking vs. Variable Staking
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Wisdom of the Crowds applied to betting
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Home team advantage analised

Taking into consideration home field advantage is an essential part of betting. What factors influence home advantage? Which soccer league has the biggest home advantage? Read on to find out.

Factors behind home field advantage

There are a number of factors that are theorised to contribute to home field advantage to some degree and these have been outlined below.

The home crowd and refereeing

There is some evidence of home team bias when it comes to refereeing decisions. The change in penalties awarded since the introduction of VARto certain soccer leagues gives a good indication of this.

Whilst penalties are fairly rare events that have a relatively limited impact on the overall home field advantage, the home team bias demonstrated since the introduction of VAR implies that referees could be favouring the home team when making other decisions within a match.

Familiarity

There is some evidence that a team’s familiarity with a venue can contribute to home field advantage but it may not be as significant as other variables.

Travel

Logically teams that have to travel long distances may suffer a disadvantage compared to teams playing in their home stadium. However, the effect of travel on athletes has been studied extensively and results are inconclusive concerning whether air travel has a detrimental impact on performance.

Other potential factors

There have been various other potential contributors to home field advantage investigated including testosterone, altitude and extracurricular distractions. Dominic Cortis has provided an in-depth explanation for some of these other potential causes of home advantage in this article.

Home field advantage in soccer

Which soccer league has the biggest home field advantage?

The level of home field advantage varies between leagues in soccer. Since each team plays their opponents both home and away it is relatively straight forward to measure home field advantage.

The best way to do this is by looking at the average goal difference achieved by home sides (home goal advantage) as this will be a more accurate reflection of any potential advantage compared to simply looking at results.

For example, by looking solely at match results, Manchester City beating Huddersfield by eight goals to one at home and then winning by a single goal in the reverse fixture would be counted as the same outcome. Home goal advantage demonstrates that Huddersfield performed better at home.

For example, by looking solely at match results, Manchester City beating Huddersfield by eight goals to one at home and then winning by a single goal in the reverse fixture would be counted as the same outcome. Home goal advantage demonstrates that Huddersfield performed better at home.

Home goal advantage in soccer leagues

League

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

Average

MLS

0.43

0.61

0.75

0.54

0.63

0.59

La Liga

0.51

0.42

0.38

0.49

0.4

0.44

Bundesliga

0.34

0.42

0.45

0.31

0.41

0.39

Ligue 1

0.37

0.33

0.49

0.35

0.34

0.38

Premier League

0.38

0.38

0.4

0.28

0.38

0.36

Serie A

0.35

0.31

0.37

0.36

0.24

0.33

As the table shows, the MLS is quite distinct from the big five European soccer leagues due to the level of home field advantage enjoyed by home teams.The big five European leagues are all relatively close with evidence of a marginally greater home field advantage present in Spain’s La Liga whilst the effect of home field advantage is diminished in Serie A.

Home field advantage and soccer betting

It is no secret to bettors that home field advantage exists in soccer but how inline is home goal advantage with the betting markets?

 

There is only a moderate 0.46 coefficient of correlation between home goal advantage and Pinnacle’s closing line odds.

There are two potential reasons for this. Home advantage is not particularly variable and the big swings in home goal advantage are due to variance correctly ignored by the closing line odds. Alternatively, the market is not efficiently calculating home advantage and lags behind the actual swings.

Since the closing line odds are such efficient predictors in general, the answer is probably the former option. However, there may be some cases where the closing line odds are not completely factoring in home advantage.

Home field advantage in other sports

Home field advantage is also a factor in the major US sports. In fact, it is even more pronounced due to the removal of the draw result.

Home court advantage is a much-discussed topic in the NBA and it is easy to see why. According to the closing line odds home teams are more dominant than in the other three major leagues. The NFL possesses a similar home advantage but sample size here is small since most teams play just eight home games per season.

Interestingly, the MLB (where teams play the highest total number of games on the road) ranks the lowest in terms of home field advantage implied by the odds.

What should bettors know about home field advantage?

It is difficult to know how efficiently the market is pricing home field advantage. We are aware of its existence but the level to which it influences sporting fixtures is difficult to ascertain. To make things even more complicated, different teams and leagues feature contrasting levels of home field advantage which can also vary from season to season.